„We know when wars begin, but we cannot imagine their end,” – Eugeniusz Smolar in the podcast Esencja Kwadransa [13.02.2023]
In a speech delivered to the students of Szkoła z Charakterem in Gliwice, Poland, Eugeniusz Smolar highlighted the challenges arising from the limited availability of information regarding the war. We lack knowledge of specific war plans, struggle to verify many official statements, remain uncertain about the extent of the Russian military’s arsenal, and are unaware of Ukraine’s true mobilization capabilities. However, it is clear that Ukraine requires financial and military assistance from the Western countries to counter Russian aggression.
Within this context, we can identify two primary approaches to analyzing the political situation. The first school, exemplified by figures like Henry Kissinger, adopts a completely realistic standpoint, focusing on the global and regional balance of power. Those who adhere to this perspective assign little significance to cultural or human emotional factors. The second school considers the „pre-political” elements that precede and shape the geopolitical landscape. Assessments of the current situation in Eastern Europe vary significantly depending on which school of thought one deems appropriate.
Additionally, it is important to recognize that warfare necessitates adaptation to numerous unknown variables. Eugeniusz Smolar, an expert at CIR, observed that the Ukrainians and the West have demonstrated adaptability, unlike the Russians.