“Polish-Russian relations are hardly to be understood without considering two other countries: Germany and Ukraine. Both have, each in a different way, shaped the relationship between Poland and its eastern neighbor Russia” – writes Janusz Reiter, expert at the CIR, in a policy paper for Zentrum Liberale Moderne [25.10.2022]
In the policy paper “Poland’s Triagnular Russia Policy”, published at the Zentrum Liberale Moderne, Janusz Reiter writes that in the latest Polish politics one can observe a tendency to present the triangle of the three states Germany-Poland-Russia as a current geopolitical format. Furthermore, Reiter adds on Poland’s place in the mentioned triangle that the policy of self-isolation now being pursued will significantly weaken Poland’s position as an ally of Ukraine.
The more the country distances itself from the West – especially from its Western European partners – the less attractive it will be for Ukraine. Should Ukraine assert itself as a sovereign, prosperous state while Russia loses the power to threaten its neighbors, it could mark a historic turn in Polish geopolitics. However, two important conditions would still have to be met for this to happen: Europe and the transatlantic community will emerge stronger from the current conflict, and Poland will contribute because it sees its future in this community.
With its Russia policy, Poland was often isolated in Europe. That can now change if Poland itself makes a contribution, concludes Reiter.