“It cannot be ruled out that, as a result of the shock after the defeats on the Ukrainian front, there will be revolts on the outskirts of the Russian Empire,” says Eugeniusz Smolar, a CIR expert, in a commentary for the Interia portal [15.03.2023].
When asked about the future of Russia, Eugeniusz Smolar stated that potential revolts could take place on the outskirts of the Russian Empire, such as in the Caucasus.
In his opinion, it is possible that certain territories of little significance to Moscow may secede, and a further loss of influence in Central Asia to China is also likely. However, the Russian periphery lacks the economic basis for independent functioning.
The exception is the areas east of the Urals with huge deposits of natural resources. These sparsely populated lands remain under strict police and political control, with Moscow and the local elites aware that any changes would only benefit China.